Which economic consequences to expect for pig farms around an African swine fever outbreak?

Abstract. African swine fever (ASF) represents a major threat to pig production, with serious economic losses. Due to ASF occurrence in wild boars in Belgium, France has drawn up a health emergency action plan in which a large-scale exercise was led in the department of Finistère, to anticipate actions to be taken in the event of a real crisis. The study concerned an ASF infection in a 460-sow farrow-to-finish farm, in a high pig density area. After confirmation of infection, the prefect ordered the slaughter of pigs, followed by complete cleaning and disinfection and sanitary emptying, mandatory before any herd repopulation. A 10 km surveillance area was also defined around the outbreak, with movements restriction for at least 35 days. This study concerned the economic impact for farmers in the outbreak proximity. The infected farm underwent loss of margin on operational costs from total slaughtering until first sale of pigs after repopulation. Calculations were made using farm average results and prices observed over the last three years. The estimated loss varied between €550,000 and €630,000, depending on the sanitary emptying duration. Adding costs of herd repopulation, valued at €415,000, the total loss for the farm reached €1 million, that is €2,000 per present sow. The cost of cleaning and disinfection was also considered, which could reach €300,000 if optimised, with pits cleaning. The slaughter pigs of the farms included in the surveillance area stayed longer than usual, generating feed costs and heavier carcasses, which remuneration was degraded. Euthanasia of one or more batches was sometimes necessary to maintain good breeding conditions. Regarding the economic context of July 2020, the average cost of movements restriction was estimated between €100 and €190 per present sow, depending on management constraints. Total loss for the exercise was estimated at €2.7 million, considering the 146 farms located in the area. This study underlines the major economic impact for farms located near the disease outbreak. While economic loss for the infected farm is partly covered by the administration, the costs linked to movements restriction are not. The exercise also studied other economic consequences, such as restrictions exports, that are not included in this article.