Guidelines on future scenarios for the pig sector

Presentation by Sandrine Espagnol, Ifip engineer, at the 57th Pig Research Days in February 2025

The pig sector is facing many issues (food sovereignty, carbon neutrality, animal welfare, sanitary risks) in a changing context at both sector and consumer levels. Benchmarks are needed to identify possible pathways for change and their impacts. This study developed 20 scenarios for pig production in France for 2050 that combined production volume (110% of consumption, or a pessimistic trend, or one based on objectives of the national low-carbon strategy (NLCS) applied to pig production), farm types with different levels of national representativeness and two degrees of implementation of best practices, and two levels of national consumption of pork products. For each scenario, seven sustainability indicators were calculated and compared to those of the current situation. The results indicated that it is virtually impossible to meet all expectations (NLCS and food sovereignty). With a food sovereignty objective based on current consumption, the potential decrease in the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is 19%, at a cost of €231 million. In this case, national pork emissions exceeded NLCS targets by 45%. The only scenario that combined NLCS, food sovereignty and a large decrease in the GHG balance was associated with a 28% decrease in production, which significantly weakened the downstream sector. Threshold effects therefore need to be monitored to improve but also preserve a healthy pig sector. This study represents a starting point for strategic decisions by providing concrete benchmarks for sector stakeholders.

Video available on Ifip-WebTV here.