Point of view: 2024 outlook, global supply expected to decline

After a recovery in world production in 2023, the dynamics of the Chinese market will lead to a slight contraction in supply in 2024. This development points to a recovery in international trade in the coming months.

In 2023, world pork production reached a record 115 million tonnes of carcass equivalent (TCE), up 0.6% on 2022. This growth in supply is largely attributable to market developments in China and Brazil, offsetting the historic decline in Europe. At the same time, international demand declined (-3.1% year-on-year). The outlook for 2024 appears to be marked by varying dynamics between the main production basins, such as China, the European Union (EU-27), the United States and Brazil. A slight drop in world production (-0.9% year-on-year) is expected, while international demand should strengthen.

In the EU-27, the conclusions of the livestock survey carried out at the end of 2023 point to a possible end to the phase of massive decapitalization. In 2023, the decline in European supply was significant: -7.6% of pigs slaughtered, equivalent to 17.3 million pigs. In addition, the downstream sector in Europe has been impacted by major restructurings, with repercussions on market dynamics. These reorganizations are not without consequences, and will limit European production for at least the first part of the year. An improvement is expected in the second half.

At the same time, exports also fell sharply. In 2023, sales of pork products to third markets fell