Point of view: 2024 outlook, global supply expected to decline

After a recovery in world production in 2023, the dynamics of the Chinese market will lead to a slight contraction in supply in 2024. This development points to a recovery in international trade in the coming months.

In 2023, world pork production reached a record 115 million tonnes of carcass equivalent (TCE), up 0.6% on 2022. This growth in supply is largely attributable to market developments in China and Brazil, offsetting the historic decline in Europe. At the same time, international demand declined (-3.1% year-on-year). The outlook for 2024 appears to be marked by varying dynamics between the main production basins, such as China, the European Union (EU-27), the United States and Brazil. A slight drop in world production (-0.9% year-on-year) is expected, while international demand should strengthen.

Encouraging signs for the European pig market

In the EU-27, the conclusions of the livestock survey carried out at the end of 2023 point to a possible end to the phase of massive decapitalization. In 2023, the decline in European supply was significant: -7.6% of pigs slaughtered, equivalent to 17.3 million pigs. In addition, the downstream sector in Europe has been impacted by major restructurings, with repercussions on market dynamics. These